This is an interesting exercise to analyse the sales of Alexis (development with 293 units), which is supposed to be hail as the turning point of condo property in Singapore.
As a brief primer to those who are unsure of the procedure for purchase of condo, a typical purchase consists of the following steps.
Step 0: Reserve a unit. *Optional.
(Your agent will assist to reserve the unit for typically a few hours to 1-2 days, until you provide the cash/cheque for the booking fees. Not legal binding for both parties.)
Step 1: Book a unit (with 1%-5% cash/cheque) in exchange for “Option to Purchase”. *Optional.
(Typically, the option expiry in 2 weeks. However, some extend it to 3 weeks. A percentage of this “Option money” is forfeited if the interested party decides not to exercise the option to purchase.)
Step 2: Exercise option to purchase.
(Total payment required (including the “option money”) at exercising of option is 5% cash/cheque. This is also the contract date.)
Step 3: Pay the remaining balance required.
(Within typically 8 weeks, provide payment for the remaining 15%-95%, depending on the stage of completion of property.)
Let’s look at the dates of various events and dates of media publication.
12 Feb Thu
1st day of preview launch
13 Feb Fri
2nd day of preview launch,
BT “Alexis at Alexandra pulls in the punters” (quoting article “at least 50 per cent of development has been sold”)
14 Feb Sat
ST “90% of Alexandra Road condo sold”
18 Feb Wed
BT “Some Alexis buyers offer units in subsalemarket”
Now, let’s look at the contract date of the sales of Alexis from Realis.
10-Feb Tue – 1 unit
13-Feb Fri – 3 units (On 2nd preview day)
19-Feb Thu – 1 unit (6 days after 2nd preview day)
26-Feb Thu – 13 units (13 days after 2nd preview day)
27-Feb Fri – 7 units (14 days after 2nd preview day) – 25 units from launch day
02-Mar Mon – 16 units (17 days after 2nd preview day)
03-Mar Tue – 22 units (18 days after 2nd preview day)
04-Mar Wed – 28 units (19 days after 2nd preview day)
05-Mar Thu – 32 units (20 days after 2nd preview day)
06-Mar Fri – 8 units (21 days after 2nd preview day) – 131 units from launch day
10-Mar Tue – 85 units (25 days after 2nd preview day)
11-Mar Wed – 12 units (26 days after 2nd preview day) – 228 units from launch day
25-Mar Wed – 32 units (40 days after 2nd preview day)
30-Mar Mon – 1 unit (45 days after 2nd preview day)
31-Mar Tue – 1 unit (46 days after 2nd preview day)
06-Apr Mon – 5 units (52 days after 2nd preview day)
15-Apr Wed – 1 unit (61 days after 2nd preview day) – 268 units from launch day
Analysis of data
So, what has actually happened? Based on the data, assuming that the option expiry is a lax 3 weeks from the 2nd preview day, we observed that 131 units was actually sold with the excising of option to purchase. That is 45% of the development.
I wonders what happened to the other 45%, since ST reported that “90% of Alexandra Road condo sold”. The most natural explanation is that those interested parties decided to forgo their reservation or booking with the forfeit of a percentage of their option money. Or perhaps, additional grace of time was given.
Oh, back to the point, within an addition of around 5 days (14-18 Feb), while the good news that “Alexis condo sold like hot cakes” sinks into our mind, 97 additional Option To Purchase were exercised on 10-11 Mar, where the earliest date of issuing of option (with expiry of 3 weeks) is at around 17-18 Feb.
No matter whether the news played any factor, or whether the lure of the discount at the preview price, or the good location of the development, or the pricing of the units at affordable price, the sales of Alexis, with a total of 268 units (>90%) sold to date, is a great achievement in the then recession months, and will always be hail as the turning point. (SIngapore is “officially” out of recession.)