Alice Cheong

This is an interesting exercise to analyse the sales of Alexis (development with 293 units), which is supposed to be hail as the turning point of condo property in Singapore.

As a brief primer to those who are unsure of the procedure for purchase of condo, a typical purchase consists of the following steps.

Step 0: Reserve a unit. *Optional.
(Your agent will assist to reserve the unit for typically a few hours to 1-2 days, until you provide the cash/cheque for the booking fees. Not legal binding for both parties.)

Step 1: Book a unit (with 1%-5% cash/cheque) in exchange for “Option to Purchase”. *Optional.
(Typically, the option expiry in 2 weeks. However, some extend it to 3 weeks. A percentage of this “Option money” is forfeited if the interested party decides not to exercise the option to purchase.)

Step 2: Exercise option to purchase.
(Total payment required (including the “option money”) at exercising of option is 5% cash/cheque. This is also the contract date.)

Step 3: Pay the remaining balance required.
(Within typically 8 weeks, provide payment for the remaining 15%-95%, depending on the stage of completion of property.)

Let’s look at the dates of various events and dates of media publication.

12 Feb Thu
1st day of preview launch

13 Feb Fri
2nd day of preview launch,
BT “Alexis at Alexandra pulls in the punters” (quoting article “at least 50 per cent of development has been sold”)

14 Feb Sat
ST “90% of Alexandra Road condo sold”

18 Feb Wed
BT “Some Alexis buyers offer units in subsalemarket”

Now, let’s look at the contract date of the sales of Alexis from Realis.

10-Feb Tue – 1 unit
13-Feb Fri – 3 units (On 2nd preview day)
19-Feb Thu – 1 unit (6 days after 2nd preview day)
26-Feb Thu – 13 units (13 days after 2nd preview day)
27-Feb Fri – 7 units (14 days after 2nd preview day) – 25 units from launch day

02-Mar Mon – 16 units (17 days after 2nd preview day)
03-Mar Tue – 22 units (18 days after 2nd preview day)
04-Mar Wed – 28 units (19 days after 2nd preview day)
05-Mar Thu – 32 units (20 days after 2nd preview day)
06-Mar Fri – 8 units (21 days after 2nd preview day) – 131 units from launch day

10-Mar Tue – 85 units (25 days after 2nd preview day)
11-Mar Wed – 12 units (26 days after 2nd preview day) – 228 units from launch day

25-Mar Wed – 32 units (40 days after 2nd preview day)
30-Mar Mon – 1 unit (45 days after 2nd preview day)
31-Mar Tue – 1 unit (46 days after 2nd preview day)
06-Apr Mon – 5 units (52 days after 2nd preview day)
15-Apr Wed – 1 unit (61 days after 2nd preview day) – 268 units from launch day

Analysis of data

So, what has actually happened? Based on the data, assuming that the option expiry is a lax 3 weeks from the 2nd preview day, we observed that 131 units was actually sold with the excising of option to purchase. That is 45% of the development.

I wonders what happened to the other 45%, since ST reported that “90% of Alexandra Road condo sold”. The most natural explanation is that those interested parties decided to forgo their reservation or booking with the forfeit of a percentage of their option money. Or perhaps, additional grace of time was given.

Oh, back to the point, within an addition of around 5 days (14-18 Feb), while the good news that “Alexis condo sold like hot cakes” sinks into our mind, 97 additional Option To Purchase were exercised on 10-11 Mar, where the earliest date of issuing of option (with expiry of 3 weeks) is at around 17-18 Feb.

No matter whether the news played any factor, or whether the lure of the discount at the preview price, or the good location of the development, or the pricing of the units at affordable price, the sales of Alexis, with a total of 268 units (>90%) sold to date, is a great achievement in the then recession months, and will always be hail as the turning point. (SIngapore is “officially” out of recession.)

Reading the ST article regarding PSC chairman Mr Eddie Teo’s eight-page opening letter to school on the selection process for PSC scholarship, evoked the feeling of hope for the future of civil service.

The article showed glimpse of insight onto the ground feeling, that equates obedience and ‘yes’ man as the mandate for staying in civil service. It is heartening to hear that Mr Teo is appalled to hear from a scholarship candidate that he will obey his superior instructions despite possibly contravening policies* due to vested interest, in order to be obedient.

It is even more interesting to hear the subtle encouragement to challenge authority shrewdly and with street-savvyness, through it is uncommon for shrewdness and street-savvyness to be applied in this sense.

This declaration that the public service is not looking for conformists and ‘yes-men’, is a good step forward, but hopefully, the few mavericks is equipped with sufficient Emotional Quotient, that enables him or her to survive without the possible backlash ranging from transposition of credit dues and mistakes committed and bad performance review**, leading to stagnant in salary, additional or impossible workload, and/or assign/transfer to strategically remote post as part of job rotation/career development initiative.

* Depending on the award process, it might or might not contravene policies. However, it is known that in the view of possible vested interest, a tender may be held. And as such, the drafting of the tender requirements may be skewed with shrew justifications provided to ensure the required end result, without contravening any policy.

** Performance review affects merit salary increment and bonuses. Judging by the number of months that this component is based on historical records, I do wonder how much does integrity cost. Ops, I forgot, in research, passion feeds, and in work, integrity feeds.